Joe Biden and Donald Trump have decisively won their party primaries in Michigan, solidifying their positions as likely candidates for the upcoming presidential election. However, the results reveal potential weaknesses for each of their campaigns.
Trump, securing 66% of the votes, maintains a substantial lead of over twenty points against Nikki Haley, his last remaining Republican rival in the primary race. This victory in Michigan, following previous wins in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, affirms the former president's dominance within the Republican Party.
Despite Trump's strong performance, Haley's 29% share of the votes continues to pose a challenge. While she may not contest his nomination, Haley disrupts Trump's narrative of being the sole and irresistible candidate. Moreover, her significant support in Michigan, along with previous victories in New Hampshire and South Carolina, indicates that over a quarter of Republican voters are not in favor of another Trump candidacy. Even if some of these dissenting voices eventually rally behind Trump, their number suggests potential conservative votes might be lacking in the general election.
On the Democratic side, Joe Biden secures an expected victory in the Michigan primary with an overwhelming 79% of the votes. His sole opponent, Minnesota Representative Dean Philips, only garners 2.8% of the votes. However, a more concerning figure for the Democratic president is the 14.8% of "uncommitted" ballots, signifying opposition to his support for Israel in the conflict with Hamas in Gaza.
A significant portion of this protest vote, around 23,000 votes, comes from Arab-American voters, particularly concentrated in Michigan. In Dearborn, boasting the highest concentration of Arab Americans in the U.S., nearly two-thirds of the ballots were uncommitted. The protest movement within the Democratic Party against Biden's Middle East policy extends beyond Arab Americans, encompassing substantial segments of the party's left-wing and younger demographics.
If these voters were to be absent in the presidential election in November, it could have serious consequences for Biden. A defeat in Michigan would also be a significant setback for his re-election bid. As a pivotal state, Michigan played a crucial role in recent primaries and presidential elections, contributing to Trump's 2016 victory and Biden's win in 2020.
The showdown between Biden and Trump in the upcoming November election now seems almost inevitable. Barring any unexpected events, the "Super Tuesday" on March 5, where numerous states hold their primaries simultaneously, is expected to confirm each candidate's dominance and secure their nominations during the summer conventions. Despite its inevitability, the prospect of another Trump-Biden duel does not satisfy the majority of Americans.
Nikki Haley, persisting in her Republican primary candidacy, criticizes both Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Continuing her campaign in Colorado, one of the states voting on March 5, she warns the Republican Party against the risk of another defeat in November if Trump becomes the candidate again. "If we don't have someone who can win the general election, all we're doing is surrendering to the left and socialism," Haley declares.
The Trump campaign would prefer Haley to withdraw as soon as possible. Steven Cheung, his spokesperson, states, "Republican voters have given President Trump a resounding victory in all primary elections, and this race is over."